Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 March 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 14/1609Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/1644Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0959Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 070
  Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 070/070/068
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  010/012-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm30%20%25%

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