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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 09/2312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2257 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (12 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Mar 071
  Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 071/071/070
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  022/030-014/018-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%35%35%
Major-severe storm55%40%40%

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