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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 09/1629Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0411Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2558 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (11 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 071
  Predicted    10 Mar-12 Mar 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  006/008-022/030-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%40%35%
Minor storm 01%20%10%
Major-severe storm 01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm 20%30%35%
Major-severe storm 10%55%40%

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