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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 05/1114Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/2236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14432 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Mar 072
  Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        05 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  006/005-007/010-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm10%20%30%

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