Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 March 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s at 01/2240Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 62290 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (05 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Mar 069
  Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        02 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  018/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Mar  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  011/012-010/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%15%15%

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