Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 February 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 352 km/s at 26/0131Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (28 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Feb 071
  Predicted    27 Feb-01 Mar 071/070/070
  90 Day Mean        26 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Feb  003/004
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  012/018-020/024-012/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm 25%25%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 50%55%40%

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