Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 February 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 23/2102Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Feb, 26 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Feb 071
  Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        24 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Feb  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  006/005-006/005-012/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%40%
Minor storm01%01%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm15%15%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%50%

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