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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 22/0117Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/2106Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Feb 071
  Predicted    23 Feb-25 Feb 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        22 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 25%15%15%
Major-severe storm 10%10%10%

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