Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 February 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 21/2022Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/0001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/0512Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 736 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (24 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Feb 071
  Predicted    22 Feb-24 Feb 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  009/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  010/010-009/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm 10%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm 30%25%15%
Major-severe storm 30%10%10%

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