Viewing archive of Monday, 18 February 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 18/1124Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/0033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 670 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Feb, 20 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Feb 070
  Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Feb  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  010/012-012/016-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm35%40%35%

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