Viewing archive of Friday, 15 February 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 15/0854Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 983 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 071
  Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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