Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 February 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 14/1119Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/0741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/0749Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1271 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 071 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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