Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 February 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 11/2126Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 442 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 070
  Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  008/008-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%15%
Minor storm01%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm25%35%20%
Major-severe storm15%40%15%

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