Viewing archive of Monday, 11 February 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 10/2117Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2407 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (12 Feb, 14 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 070
  Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 070/072/072
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  007/008-012/014-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%25%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm30%35%30%
Major-severe storm25%40%30%

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