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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 09/0500Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/0523Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3750 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Feb), quiet levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 070
  Predicted    10 Feb-12 Feb 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  009/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  010/012-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%15%
Minor storm 10%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm 30%20%25%
Major-severe storm 30%10%20%

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