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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 08/2043Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/2040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3797 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 071
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  011/015-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm35%20%10%

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