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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 06/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/2002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3630 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (08 Feb, 09 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Feb 070
  Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        07 Feb 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  011/015-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%35%20%

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