Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 31/1628Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 31/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 31/2026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1413 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 072
  Predicted    01 Feb-03 Feb 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  000/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  011/016
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  013/018-010/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm 25%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 55%30%25%

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