Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 30/0611Z from Region 2733 (N04W89). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (31 Jan) and expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 326 km/s at 29/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1563 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jan 074
  Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 073/071/072
  90 Day Mean        30 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  000/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jan  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  014/020-014/018-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm55%55%30%

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