Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 January 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/1034Z from Region 2733 (N05W76). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (30 Jan, 31
Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 29/0305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1250 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet to active
levels on day two (31 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (01 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 073 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 072/070/071 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 007/008-009/012-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 40% | 55% |
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