Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/1034Z from Region 2733 (N05W76). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (30 Jan, 31 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 29/0305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1250 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (31 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (01 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jan 073
  Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 072/070/071
  90 Day Mean        29 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  000/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jan  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  007/008-009/012-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%35%
Minor storm01%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm15%40%55%

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