Viewing archive of Monday, 28 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 28/0041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1386 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (31 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jan 076
  Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 075/073/070
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  005/005-007/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%30%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm15%15%40%

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