Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/1337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/0138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1726 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jan 074
  Predicted    28 Jan-30 Jan 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        27 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jan  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 15%15%15%

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