Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 26/1322Z from Region 2733 (N05W34). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 25/2119Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/0836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/0952Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2053 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jan 077
  Predicted    27 Jan-29 Jan 077/077/077
  90 Day Mean        26 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jan  006/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%20%
Major-severe storm 20%15%15%

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