Viewing archive of Friday, 25 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 24/2201Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/0030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jan 075
  Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        25 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  013/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  011/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  009/010-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%20%15%

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