Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 15/2112Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/1850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 070
  Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

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