Viewing archive of Monday, 14 January 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 410 km/s at 14/0707Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
14/0114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
14/0115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 583 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Jan, 16 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 070 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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