Viewing archive of Friday, 11 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 11/0439Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 978 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Jan, 13 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 068
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  008/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

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