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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 02/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (05 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jan 075
  Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  005/005-010/014-017/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%35%
Minor storm01%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm10%40%65%

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