Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 31/2204Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/0556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1700 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Jan, 03 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jan 072
  Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        01 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jan  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  006/005-005/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%40%

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