Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 January 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 31/2204Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 01/0556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/0949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1700 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Jan, 03 Jan) and quiet to
active levels on day three (04 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 072 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 006/005-005/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 40% |
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