Viewing archive of Monday, 31 December 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Dec 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 30/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/1005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3751 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Dec 069
  Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        31 Dec 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Dec  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

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