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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s at 30/1419Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/0445Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4040 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Dec 069
  Predicted    31 Dec-02 Jan 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        30 Dec 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Dec  009/011
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  009/010-006/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%20%20%
Major-severe storm 25%20%20%

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