Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 December 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Dec 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 06/0115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Dec 070
  Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 070/070/068
  90 Day Mean        06 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Dec  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  010/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm35%25%25%
Major-severe storm30%20%20%

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