Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 November 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 28/0425Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 28/0017Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Nov, 30 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Nov 068
  Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        28 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  006/005-006/005-019/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%45%
Minor storm01%01%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%70%

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