Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 November 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 10/1332Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/0008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 10/0814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1668 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Nov 069
  Predicted    11 Nov-13 Nov 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  011/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  011/012-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm 15%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 45%40%30%

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