Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 November 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 08/1512Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/0826Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/0833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8829 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 Nov, 10 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Nov 070
  Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  011/016-014/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm55%60%50%

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