Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 November 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 05/2224Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1837Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/0909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7467 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Nov), quiet levels on day two (08 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (09 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Nov 069
  Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 069/070/070
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  022/030
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  007/008-006/005-011/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%35%
Minor storm05%01%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm30%15%55%

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