Viewing archive of Monday, 5 November 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 05/0508Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 04/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 04/2219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Nov 068
  Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        05 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  023/038
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  011/015-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%10%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm50%40%20%

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