Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 November 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 362 km/s at 01/0828Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0523Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0403Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (03 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Nov 067
  Predicted    02 Nov-04 Nov 067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  005/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  006/005-016/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%30%
Minor storm 05%20%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%25%30%
Major-severe storm 15%45%35%

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