Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 October 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 13/2056Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 13/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 13/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 35256 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 072
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 072/071/070
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  012/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  014/030-010/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%20%10%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm60%25%20%

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