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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Oct 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 07/2336Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/0239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10717 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Oct 069
  Predicted    09 Oct-11 Oct 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        08 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  013/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Oct  023/029
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  014/015-011/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%30%25%
Major-severe storm 40%40%35%

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