Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 October 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 07/1756Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 07/1226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 07/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 343 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (08 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 068 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 018/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 023/035-014/015-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 50% | 50% |
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