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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Oct 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 07/1756Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 07/1226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 07/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 343 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (08 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Oct 068
  Predicted    08 Oct-10 Oct 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        07 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Oct  018/027
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  023/035-014/015-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm 35%15%15%
Major-severe storm 20%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%10%
Minor storm 20%25%25%
Major-severe storm 75%50%50%

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