Viewing archive of Friday, 5 October 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Oct 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 05/0759Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/0745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/2259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 456 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Oct), quiet to major storm levels on day two (07 Oct) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (08 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Oct 069
  Predicted    06 Oct-08 Oct 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        05 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Oct  008/009
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  005/005-017/024-025/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%35%
Minor storm 01%35%35%
Major-severe storm 01%20%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm 20%20%20%
Major-severe storm 10%75%75%

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