Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 September 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 22/1653Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/2147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10633 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 068
  Predicted    23 Sep-25 Sep 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  020/024
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  018/024-013/016-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm 25%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 30%25%30%
Major-severe storm 55%40%30%

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