Viewing archive of Friday, 21 September 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 21/1651Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10457 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (23 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (24 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 067 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 002/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 008/010-017/022-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 55% | 40% |
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