Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 September 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 16/0222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 31051 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (19 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Sep 069
  Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 069/069/068
  90 Day Mean        16 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  007/005 
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  014/016-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm40%30%20%

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