Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 September 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 659 km/s at 14/2213Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 39830 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Sep 069
  Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        15 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  011/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Sep  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  013/016-012/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%40%30%

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