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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 10/2052Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 10/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 10/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 861 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Sep 069
  Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        10 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Sep  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  023/035-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm35%30%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm15%20%25%
Major-severe storm80%70%50%

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