Viewing archive of Monday, 10 September 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 10/2052Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 10/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 10/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 861 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 069 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 023/035-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 70% | 50% |
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