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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 08/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1551Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Sep), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (11 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (12 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Sep 068
  Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        09 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  011/012-023/035-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%35%
Minor storm25%35%30%
Major-severe storm10%25%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm25%15%20%
Major-severe storm65%80%70%

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