Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 August 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 16/0128Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/1007Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 391 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Aug 068
  Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        16 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Aug  012/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  010/010-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

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