Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 August 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 15/1450Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/1053Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Aug 069
  Predicted    16 Aug-18 Aug 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        15 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Aug  012/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  013/015-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm 15%05%01%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm 25%25%20%
Major-severe storm 50%25%10%

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